BTC Volatility Analysis for CPI, 13th May 2025

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 13 May 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2% for April 2025, against 0.0% in March 2025. Consumer prices are rising again, after a fall.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $103,555.09 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.17% higher, and an hour later 0.22% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.61% of its price, against 0.35% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.32x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.79x, against a typical 6.92x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.32x compares with 3.99x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.

What it means

Bitcoin registered a muted reaction to the April 2025 CPI release and the core measures that arrived with it. Its volatility ratio reached only 2.32x in the quarter hour after the print, well below the 4.28x median recorded across 70 CPI releases since 2021. Volume rose 4.79x against a typical 6.92x, confirming subdued participation. The price itself advanced just 0.17 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 0.22 percent after an hour, while the hourly range expanded only to 0.61 percent from 0.35 percent beforehand.

The timing of the release helps explain the limited movement. It fell 35 days before the Federal Reserve's June decision and therefore outside the two-week window that has historically produced stronger Bitcoin responses. CPI releases in that window have shown a median volatility ratio of 4.75x, compared with 3.99x at other times. The observed 2.32x ratio sits below even that lower benchmark, indicating the market treated the data as less consequential than its calendar position alone would imply.

Traders preparing for the next CPI print can note that proximity to a policy meeting has mattered more than the headline surprise in past cycles. Releases far from decisions have tended to generate smaller volatility spikes, and this instance reinforces that pattern without establishing a new baseline.

About Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

102,530.14

103,904.76

24h Change

1374.62 (1.32%)

24h High

104,976.25

24h Low

101,429.70

24h Volume

21,640 BTC

US Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

13th May, 2025, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	103620.45	103620.46	103544.87	103555.10	-0.06%	0.07%	19 BTC
During	103555.09	103961.97	103338.23	103811.18	0.25%	0.60%	356 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	103490.97	103628.00	103489.20	103555.10	0.06%	0.13%	60 BTC
During	103555.09	103961.97	103338.23	103764.00	0.20%	0.60%	516 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	103556.83	103628.00	103455.41	103555.10	0.00%	0.17%	108 BTC
During	103555.09	103961.97	103338.23	103873.73	0.31%	0.60%	656 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	103520.02	103677.90	103455.41	103555.10	0.03%	0.21%	165 BTC
During	103555.09	103966.00	103338.23	103734.84	0.17%	0.60%	824 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	103729.20	103819.51	103455.41	103555.10	-0.17%	0.35%	396 BTC
During	103555.09	103966.00	103338.23	103682.52	0.12%	0.60%	1,016 BTC

1 Hour
Before	103608.61	103822.03	103455.41	103555.10	-0.05%	0.35%	631 BTC
During	103555.09	103966.00	103338.23	103786.60	0.22%	0.60%	1,402 BTC

2 Hours
Before	103494.92	103822.03	103389.51	103555.10	0.06%	0.42%	1,033 BTC
During	103555.09	103966.00	102811.32	103390.91	-0.16%	1.11%	2,783 BTC

4 Hours
Before	102571.99	103822.03	102563.19	103555.10	0.95%	1.21%	2,772 BTC
During	103555.09	104394.61	102811.32	104151.02	0.57%	1.52%	4,912 BTC

6 Hours
Before	102365.00	103822.03	102350.75	103555.10	1.15%	1.42%	4,052 BTC
During	103555.09	104428.58	102811.32	104349.20	0.76%	1.55%	6,462 BTC

8 Hours
Before	102530.14	102958.81	101429.70	102571.99	0.04%	1.49%	6,937 BTC
During	102571.99	104394.61	102563.19	104151.02	1.52%	1.75%	7,684 BTC

12 Hours
Before	102530.14	103822.03	101429.70	103555.10	0.99%	2.30%	9,710 BTC
During	103555.09	104976.25	102811.32	103904.76	0.34%	2.06%	11,931 BTC