BTC Volatility Analysis for CPI, 12th March 2025

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 12 March 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2% for February 2025, against 0.4% in January 2025. Consumer prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $83,361.05 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.32% higher, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.52% of its price, against 0.93% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.17x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 9.40x, against a typical 6.92x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one came out 7 days before the Federal Reserve's 19 March rate decision. Its own ratio of 3.17x compares with 4.75x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.

What it means

Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the February CPI release that arrived seven days before the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting. The volatility ratio reached 3.17x, below the 4.28x median recorded across 70 CPI prints since 2021 and the 4.75x median observed for the 28 releases that fell inside the two-week window before a decision. Price rose 0.32 percent in the first fifteen minutes before returning to its opening level of $83,361.05 an hour later, while the hourly range expanded only to 1.52 percent from 0.93 percent beforehand.

Volume, by contrast, expanded more than usual, posting a 9.40x ratio against the 6.92x benchmark for CPI events. The release itself showed headline inflation easing to 0.2 percent month-over-month from 0.4 percent in January, and it coincided with the core CPI and core inflation prints. That combination of a smaller-than-typical volatility response and elevated turnover suggests traders absorbed the data without the sharp repositioning often seen when CPI lands close to a Federal Open Market Committee meeting. A volatility ratio materially below both the overall and pre-Fed medians can still occur when the surprise component remains contained, leaving the market to focus on the broader sequence of data scheduled through the following week.

About Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

82,863.21

83,705.61

24h Change

842.40 (1.01%)

24h High

84,539.85

24h Low

80,607.65

24h Volume

32,327 BTC

US Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

12th March, 2025, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	83163.60	83511.00	83148.46	83361.05	0.24%	0.43%	112 BTC
During	83361.05	84539.85	83361.05	84125.43	0.91%	1.39%	885 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	83070.64	83511.00	82953.96	83361.05	0.35%	0.67%	163 BTC
During	83361.05	84539.85	83361.05	83927.30	0.67%	1.39%	1,588 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	83001.45	83511.00	82953.96	83361.05	0.43%	0.67%	243 BTC
During	83361.05	84539.85	83361.05	83571.43	0.25%	1.39%	2,020 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	82948.15	83511.00	82948.15	83361.05	0.50%	0.67%	338 BTC
During	83361.05	84539.85	83361.05	83631.19	0.32%	1.39%	2,310 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	83004.45	83511.00	82873.20	83361.05	0.43%	0.76%	719 BTC
During	83361.05	84539.85	83361.05	84069.00	0.84%	1.39%	2,928 BTC

1 Hour
Before	82766.65	83511.00	82737.64	83361.05	0.71%	0.93%	1,269 BTC
During	83361.05	84539.85	83275.17	83339.16	-0.03%	1.50%	4,127 BTC

2 Hours
Before	82296.29	83511.00	82106.09	83361.05	1.28%	1.68%	2,074 BTC
During	83361.05	84539.85	82182.37	82476.64	-1.07%	2.79%	7,116 BTC

4 Hours
Before	82517.00	83511.00	82106.09	83361.05	1.01%	1.68%	4,561 BTC
During	83361.05	84539.85	80607.65	81843.86	-1.85%	4.65%	11,824 BTC

6 Hours
Before	81699.44	83511.00	81296.00	83361.05	1.99%	2.65%	7,352 BTC
During	83361.05	84539.85	80607.65	82537.31	-1.00%	4.65%	14,164 BTC

8 Hours
Before	82863.21	83783.26	81296.00	82516.99	-0.42%	2.97%	9,524 BTC
During	82517.00	84539.85	80607.65	81843.86	-0.82%	4.65%	16,385 BTC

12 Hours
Before	82863.21	83783.26	81296.00	83361.05	0.60%	2.97%	14,085 BTC
During	83361.05	84539.85	80607.65	83705.61	0.41%	4.65%	18,242 BTC