BTC Volatility Analysis for CPI, 10th June 2022

Data Analysis

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 6.29x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 13.46x, against a typical 6.92x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $30,106.32 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.36% lower, and an hour later 2.18% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.66% of its price, against 0.69% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 10 June 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.9% for May 2022, against 0.3% in April 2022. Consumer prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 15 June rate decision. Its own ratio of 6.29x compares with 4.75x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.

What it means

Bitcoin registered a strong reaction to the May 2022 CPI release, with a volatility ratio of 6.29x against the 4.28x median recorded across 70 CPI prints since 2021. Volume expanded to 13.46x its typical quarter-hour level, well above the 6.92x benchmark. Price action reflected the move: Bitcoin stood at $30,106.32 at 8:30 AM EDT and fell 1.36 percent within fifteen minutes and 2.18 percent within the hour, while its hourly range widened to 2.66 percent from 0.69 percent beforehand.

The release arrived five days before the June FOMC meeting, a window in which CPI has historically produced a 4.75x median volatility ratio. The observed 6.29x reading exceeded even that elevated baseline, indicating the 0.9 percent month-over-month print, up from 0.3 percent in April, carried additional weight beyond its calendar placement as Core CPI components published simultaneously contributed to the combined impact measured on the page.

Traders reviewing the record may note that CPI releases clustered near policy decisions have shown larger median volatility than those at other times, yet individual outcomes still vary around that central tendency. The June 2022 episode illustrates how a single print can surpass the timing-adjusted median without implying a repeatable magnitude for future releases.

About Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

29,806.43

29,190.63

24h Change

-615.80 (-2.11%)

24h High

30,382.80

24h Low

28,850.00

24h Volume

71,332 BTC

US Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

10th June, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	30125.81	30125.81	30086.61	30106.32	-0.06%	0.13%	25 BTC
During	30106.32	30106.33	29600.00	29669.91	-1.47%	1.68%	1,201 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	30148.74	30184.40	30086.61	30106.32	-0.14%	0.32%	237 BTC
During	30106.32	30106.33	29501.00	29553.89	-1.87%	2.01%	3,909 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	30079.57	30184.40	30078.50	30106.32	0.09%	0.35%	356 BTC
During	30106.32	30106.33	29501.00	29735.33	-1.25%	2.01%	5,060 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	30119.50	30184.40	30069.52	30106.32	-0.04%	0.38%	500 BTC
During	30106.32	30106.33	29501.00	29697.39	-1.38%	2.01%	6,111 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	30020.56	30184.40	29989.09	30106.32	0.28%	0.65%	979 BTC
During	30106.32	30106.33	29501.00	29642.60	-1.56%	2.01%	8,233 BTC

1 Hour
Before	29976.84	30184.40	29976.83	30106.32	0.43%	0.69%	1,437 BTC
During	30106.32	30106.33	29304.03	29449.16	-2.23%	2.66%	12,054 BTC

2 Hours
Before	29975.85	30184.40	29950.96	30106.32	0.43%	0.77%	2,505 BTC
During	30106.32	30106.33	29222.67	29453.62	-2.22%	2.94%	19,147 BTC

4 Hours
Before	30032.09	30184.40	29868.00	30106.32	0.25%	1.05%	9,424 BTC
During	30106.32	30106.33	28864.14	28971.77	-3.92%	4.13%	28,628 BTC

6 Hours
Before	30144.96	30184.40	29868.00	30106.32	-0.13%	1.05%	11,952 BTC
During	30106.32	30106.33	28850.00	29062.81	-3.59%	4.17%	36,314 BTC

8 Hours
Before	29806.43	30382.80	29692.00	30032.09	0.75%	2.27%	15,392 BTC
During	30032.09	30184.40	28864.14	28971.77	-3.66%	4.37%	38,051 BTC

12 Hours
Before	29806.43	30382.80	29692.00	30106.32	1.00%	2.27%	24,815 BTC
During	30106.32	30106.33	28850.00	29190.63	-3.14%	4.17%	46,517 BTC